Kana mvura yemwaka inonaya gare gare muIndonesia, varimi vanowanzoitora sechiratidzo chekuti hazvikodzeri kuisa mari mufotereza yezvirimwa zvavo.Dzimwe nguva vanosarudza kusadyara zvirimwa zvepagore zvachose.Kazhinji, vanoita sarudzo yakarurama, nokuti kunonoka kutanga kwemwaka wemvura kunowanzoenderana nemamiriro eEl Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) uye kusanaya kwakakwana mumwedzi inotevera.
Tsvakurudzo itsva yakabudiswa mu "Science Reports" inoratidza kuti ENSO inzvimbo yemamiriro ekunze deformation yekudziya uye kutonhora pamwe chete nePacific Ocean pamwe ne equator, uye fungidziro ine simba kusvika kumakore maviri muti wecocoa usati wakohwewa.
Idzi dzinogona kunge dziri nhau dzakanaka kuvarimi vadiki, masayendisiti uye indasitiri yechokoreti yepasi rose.Kugona kufanotaura saizi yegoho pachine nguva kunogona kukanganisa sarudzo dzekudyara kwepurazi, kuvandudza zvirongwa zvekutsvagisa zvirimwa zvekupisa uye kuderedza njodzi uye kusava nechokwadi muindasitiri yechokoreti.
Vatsvaguri vanoti nzira imwe chete iyi inosanganisa kudzidza kwemichina yemhando yepamusoro nekuunganidzwa kwedata kwenguva pfupi patsika dzevarimi negoho rinogona kushandiswawo kune zvimwe zvirimwa zvinonaya mvura, zvinosanganisira kofi nemaorivhi.
Thomas Oberthür, munyori-munyori uye mugadziri webhizinesi weAfrican Plant Nutrition Institute (APNI) kuMorocco, akati: "Chinhu chakakosha chetsvagurudzo iyi ndechekuti unogona kutsiva nemamiriro ekunze data neENSO data.""Uchishandisa nzira iyi, unogona kuongorora chero chinhu chine chekuita neENSO.Zvirimwa zvine hukama hwekugadzira. "
Chikamu che80% chevhu rinorimwa pasi rose rinotsamira pakunaya kwemvura yakananga (kusiyana nekudiridza), iyo inosvika makumi matanhatu kubva muzana yehuwandu hwekurima.Zvisinei, munzvimbo zhinji dzeidzi nzvimbo, ruzivo rwekunaya kwemvura ishoma uye rwakasiyana zvikuru, izvo zvinoita kuti zviomere masayendisiti, vanogadzira mitemo, uye mapoka evarimi kuti vagadzirise kuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze.
Muchidzidzo ichi, vaongorori vakashandisa mhando yekudzidza muchina isingade zvinyorwa zvemamiriro ekunze kubva kumapurazi ekoko eIndonesia ari kutora chikamu muchidzidzo ichi.
Pane kudaro, vaivimba nedata pakushandiswa kwefetereza, goho, uye rudzi rwepurazi.Vakabatanidza iyi data muBayesian Neural Network (BNN) uye vakaona kuti ENSO nhanho yakafanotaura 75% yekuchinja kwegoho.
Mune mamwe mazwi, muzviitiko zvakawanda muchidzidzo, tembiricha yegungwa rePacific Ocean inogona kunyatsofanotaura goho rekocoa bhinzi.Mune zvimwe zviitiko, zvinokwanisika kuita kufanotaura kwakarurama mwedzi 25 pamberi pekukohwa.
Kutanga, zvinowanzoita kupemberera muenzaniso unogona kunyatsofanotaura shanduko ye50% mukugadzirwa.Rudzi urwu rwekufanotaura kwenguva refu kwegoho regoho kashoma.
Mumwe munyori wemubatanidzwa uye muongorori werukudzo James Cock akati: “Izvi zvinotitendera kuti tive nepamusoro pemafambisirwo akasiyana-siyana papurazi, senge masisitimu efotereza, uye kupa mapindiro anobudirira nechivimbo chikuru."International Biodiversity Organisation uye CIAT."Iyi ishanduko yese kutsvagiridzo yekushanda."
Cock, a physiologist yechirimwa, akataura kuti kunyangwe zviyedzo zvakadzorwa zvisina kurongeka (RCTs) zvinowanzoonekwa seye goridhe chiyero chekutsvaga, iyi miedzo inodhura uye saka kazhinji haigone mukusimudzira nzvimbo dzekurima dzinopisa.Nzira inoshandiswa pano yakachipa zvakanyanya, haidi kuunganidzwa kunodhura kwemarekodhi emamiriro ekunze, uye inopa nhungamiro inobatsira pakubata zvakanaka zvirimwa mukuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze.
Muongorori wedata uye munyori anotungamira wechidzidzo Ross Chapman (Ross Chapman) akatsanangura mamwe mabhenefiti emuchina nzira dzekudzidza pamusoro pechinyakare nzira dzekuongorora data.
Chapman akati: “Modhi yeBNN yakasiyana neyakajairwa kudzoreredza modhi nekuti algorithm inotora mabhii ekuisa (senge tembiricha yegungwa nemhando yepurazi) uye wobva wadzidza otomatiki kuziva mhinduro yezvimwe zvinhu (zvakadai segoho), ” Chapman akadaro.“Muitiro mukuru unoshandiswa pakudzidza wakafanana nemuitiro uyo uropi hwomunhu hunodzidzira kuziva zvinhu uye mapatani kubva muupenyu chaihwo.Zvakasiyana, modhi yakajairwa inoda kutariswa kwemaoko kwezvakasiyana-siyana kuburikidza nemaequation akagadzirwa. "
Kunyange zvazvo pasina mamiriro okunze data, muchina kudzidza kunogona kutungamirira nani goho goho kufanotaura, kana muchina kudzidza mienzaniso anogona kushanda nemazvo, masayendisiti (kana varimi pachavo) vachiri vanofanira kuunganidza zvakarurama mamwe mashoko ekugadzirwa uye kuita kuti Data izvi zviri nyore kuwanikwa.
Papurazi rekuIndonesia cocoa muchidzidzo ichi, varimi vave chikamu chechirongwa chekudzidzira chepamusoro chekambani huru yechokoreti.Vanoronda zvekushandisa zvakaita sekushandiswa kwefetereza, vanogovana vakasununguka data iri kuti vaongororwe, uye vanochengeta zvinyorwa zvakachena kuInternational Plant Nutrition Institute (IPNI) yakarongeka yemuno kuti vaongorori vashandise.
Pamusoro pezvo, masayendisiti akambopatsanura mapurazi avo mumapoka gumi akafanana ane mamiriro akafanana enzvimbo uye mamiriro evhu.Vatsvakurudzi vakashandisa goho, kuisa fetereza, uye goho kubva muna 2013 kusvika 2018 kugadzira modhi.
Ruzivo rwunowanikwa nevarimi vecocoa runovapa chivimbo chekuti voisa marii mumafetireza uye rinhi.Unyanzvi hwezvekurima hunowanikwa neboka iri rinoshaya hunogona kuvadzivirira kubva pakurasikirwa kwemari, izvo zvinowanzoitika mumamiriro ekunze asina kunaka.
Nekuda kwekubatana kwavo nevatsvakurudzi, ruzivo rwavo zvino runogona kugoverwa neimwe nzira nevarimi vezvimwe zvirimwa kune dzimwe nzvimbo dzepasi.
Cork akati: “Pasina kuedza kwakabatana kwemurimi akazvipira IPNI uye nesangano rakasimba rekutsigira varimi reCommunity Solutions International, tsvakiridzo iyi haigoneke.Akasimbisa kukosha kwekushandira pamwe kwakasiyana-siyana uye kuenzanisa kuedza kwevanobatanidzwa.Zvido zvakasiyana.
APNI's Oberthür akati mamodheru ane simba ekufungidzira anogona kubatsira varimi nevaongorori uye kukurudzira kumwe kubatana.
Obertoor akati: “Kana uri murimi uchiunganidza data panguva imwe chete, unofanirwa kuwana mhedzisiro inobatika.“Mucherechedzo uyu unogona kupa varimi ruzivo rwakakosha uye unobatsira mukukurudzira kuunganidzwa kwedhata, nekuti varimi vanozoona kuti vari kuitawo kubatsira, izvo zvinounza pundutso kupurazi ravo.”

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